Sceptical about the Pot Shot rule

Back in 2nd edition, many units that now have the Pot Shot special rule, did have the Reload special rule. While the guys at Counter charge (great show, btw) hail this as a massive improvement, I remain sceptical.

In this blog post I’ll try to point out why.

First things first, what are the rules

Below both rules from the Kings of War 3rd edition rulebook:

If a unit moves (i.e. any move other than Halt), it cannot fire if it has reload. If it has Pot shot, the unit can fire, but at an additional -1 penalty over the -1 penalty for moving-and-shooting.

Objectively, Pot Shot is better than Reload. The unit *can* shoot, albeit severely disadvantaged. Units with this rule are usually ranged weapons which are considered ponderious and high powered such as crossbows and arquebusses.

Why a I not a fan?

Nearly all units with this rule have a ranged value of 5+. The Pot Shot rule reduces this to 7+ (i.e. sixes at half attacks) as soon as the unit moves. Shooting at 7+ stinks, here’s the numbers:

For instance, consider the dwarf ironwatch rifles below:

The horde of rifles has 20 attacks @ 5+ ranged. This means that -on average- the damage of a horde will be 4-and-a-bit against D5 and 5-and-a-half against D4 or worse. This asumes an open shot with no stealth or other penalties.

This damage is not great; but better than a lot of other shooting in the game against high def targets. (horde of elven achers does 2-and-a-half against D5 and 5-and-a-bit against D3). As shooting has been nerfed overall in the game (and the rifles haven’t), the dwarves are in a good place as long as they are shooting in an open field against high def targets.

If the dwarves moved, however; the numbers change significantly. Against def 5+ the average damage will be slightly over one point. Against def 4+ or worse it’s not even one-and-a-half. This means that -on average- your 265 point unit will deal a point of damage. possibly two. on a good day. And this is not even taking into account the penalties for shooting into cover, against single targets or stealthy units.

Here’s the math:

And this is the math calculated from a horde with 20 attacks. For regiments multiply the numbers with 0,6 (12/20) and for troops with 0,5. Practically, on average you will only deal a wound half the time with a troop that moved and shot.

A surprise

Fortunately, it doesn’t matter how many penalties one accrues after having moved; it’s always gonna be 6+ to hit @ half attacks. The KoW 3 rules on hitting targets with shooting read:

This is a new rule in KoW3, and it kinda surprised me. Apparently, if you’re shooting after having moved, it doesn’t matter if your target is also in cover, stealthy and individual. In all cases, the chance to hit is the same. Not that is does matter that much, since your average damage will still be 1,11 against D5, but it’s the idea.

Summary

Yes, units with Pot Shot are better than units with reload. Instead of not being able to shoot, there’s a very hindered shooting option. Practically, this will most likely not have a meaningful impact on the battlefield and especially not a reliable one.